According to polling data, the ruling Conservatives are indicated to experience a substantial defeat later this year. However, Professor Tim Bale emphasizes that it is premature to make predictions at this stage.
On November 7, 2023, Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister of Britain, and Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, were photographed at the Houses of Parliament in London.
In the latter part of 2024, a general election is anticipated in Britain, and Rishi Sunak, the leader of the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom, is facing significant challenges. The long-standing right-wing party, which has been in control of Britain for over a decade, lags considerably behind the primary opposition, the Labour Party, according to current polls.
Earlier this month, a YouGov survey involving approximately 14,000 respondents and reported by The Telegraph newspaper forecasted that Labour might secure 385 parliamentary seats. The Conservatives, in contrast, are expected to retain only 169 seats, marking a more substantial decline than in 1997 when Labour's Tony Blair prevailed over John Major.
On the international stage, analysts suggest that Sunak's choice to align with the United States in addressing the Houthi group in Yemen as a response to their actions in the Red Sea, as well as his refusal to advocate for a ceasefire in Gaza, could impact his approval ratings.
Al Jazeera interviewed Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, delving into the upcoming election, the hurdles confronting the 43-year-old Sunak, and the prospects for the Labour Party.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak departs after a press briefing at Downing Street in London.
Tim Bale: I would acknowledge that he is an intelligent and industrious individual. He likely possesses a good understanding of various issues, as much as any prime minister could.
However, the challenge he faces internationally is that very few of his counterparts believe he will remain in office by this time next year. Consequently, his impact is inevitably diminished compared to what it could be.
Domestically, he encounters a similar predicament, where any proposals or actions he puts forth are perceived as temporary rather than indicative of Britain's enduring policy.
Bale: It's highly unlikely that the situation will significantly impact the Conservative Party's voter support, as those particularly concerned about the Gaza conflict, especially among the Muslim community, are generally not strong supporters of the Conservatives. The Conservative vote among Muslim voters is typically low.
If the conflict were to escalate, involving a broader engagement in Yemen, and if there were an increased commitment of forces to that theater of war, the public might turn against the government.
Regarding the Labour Party, there is discussion about the potential threat to certain Labour MPs representing constituencies with substantial Muslim populations. However, many of these MPs often have large majorities. Even if some constituents strongly oppose Labour due to the Gaza situation, these MPs likely have enough support to withstand such challenges.
Furthermore, it oversimplifies matters to suggest that voters with an Islamic faith are solely defined by their religious beliefs. They also navigate an economy grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.
Bale: One prominent concern is the ongoing challenge of addressing the issue of boats arriving, particularly in the Channel, and the government's effectiveness or lack thereof in halting the influx of asylum seekers.
Other enduring concerns include economic conditions, with some predicting a potential recession before the upcoming election, which typically reflects poorly on the incumbent government. While inflation is decreasing, it may not be doing so as rapidly as desired.
The persistent cost-of-living crisis remains a significant issue for people who continue to grapple with its impact over the past year or two.
The state of the National Health Service (NHS), characterized by extensive waiting lists and challenges in accessing family doctors, is another critical problem that the government appears unable to remedy.
Looking ahead, the potential influence of the U.S. election, particularly whether Donald Trump endorses Rishi Sunak, could be a factor towards the end of the year. If Trump is re-elected before the UK election, it may create a perception of increased global instability, potentially favoring the current government over new alternatives.
Professor Tim Bale
Bale: It's challenging to envision a government trailing significantly in the polls at this point in the electoral cycle, led by a relatively unpopular Prime Minister, overseeing an economy with, at best, modest performance, and an NHS perceived as deteriorating, being able to secure victory in an election.
While Labour faces a substantial task, given their poor performance in the previous election, they need to secure numerous seats to attain a majority. However, achieving this goal seems increasingly plausible. Yet, predictions of a landslide victory may be exaggerated.
Source: cometodaddy.xyz
