The World Bank noted that the global food crisis has been exacerbated by an increasing number of food trade restrictions implemented by countries aiming to boost domestic supply and reduce prices.
As of January 17, 2024, 15 countries have enforced 21 food export bans, and 11 countries have instituted 14 measures limiting exports.
In May 2022, the World Bank pledged to allocate $30 billion over 15 months to address the crisis, a target that has been surpassed.
Furthermore, the World Bank mentioned its heightened response to food and nutrition security, now allocating $45 billion, consisting of $22 billion in new lending and $23 billion from the existing portfolio.
"Our food and nutrition security initiatives now cover 90 countries, incorporating both short-term measures like expanding social protection and long-term strategies such as enhancing productivity and implementing climate-smart agriculture.
The World Bank's efforts are anticipated to positively impact 335 million individuals, representing 44% of the undernourished population. Approximately 53% of the beneficiaries are women, who are disproportionately affected by the crisis," stated a report from the Bank.
As part of its measures to address the global food crisis, the World Bank highlighted interventions, including "a $315 million loan aimed at supporting Chad, Ghana, and Sierra Leone to enhance their preparedness against food insecurity and improve the resilience of their food systems."
Below is the full report.
The complete report reveals that domestic food price inflation remains elevated, with more than 5% inflation observed in 63.2% of low-income countries, 73.9% of lower-middle-income countries, 48% of upper-middle-income countries, and 46.3% of high-income countries. Real food price inflation surpasses overall inflation in 73% of the 165 countries with available data.
Since the previous update in December 14, 2023, agricultural and cereal price indices have decreased by 2% and 4%, respectively, while the export price index increased by 1%. Maize and wheat prices contributed to the decline in the cereal price index, dropping by 8% and 6%, respectively, while rice prices increased by 4%. On a year-on-year basis, maize and wheat prices are 29% and 20% lower, respectively, while rice prices are 39% higher. Comparatively, maize prices are 13% lower than in January 2021, wheat prices are 10% lower, and rice prices are 24% higher.
In December 2023, the FAO Food Price Index reached 118.5 points, marking a 1.8-point (1.5%) decrease from November 2023. This reduction was primarily driven by lower prices for sugar and vegetable oils, while dairy and cereal prices rose. The index was 13.3 points (10.1%) below its December 2022 level, averaging 124.0 points for 2023, which is 19.7 points (13.7%) less than 2022.
Based on insights from the October 2023 Commodity Markets Outlook, a World Bank blog post indicates a 9% decrease in the World Bank food price index in 2023 compared to 2022. Projections suggest an additional 2% decrease in 2024 and 3% in 2025 due to favorable crop conditions and lower input costs.
However, the report highlights several risks to this outlook, including the potential for an escalation of the Middle East conflict leading to sustained oil price spikes, which could increase production and transportation costs for food and fertilizers. The 2023/24 El Niño may elevate prices of tropical crops, export restrictions such as India’s ban on non-basmati rice exports have contributed to price increases, and Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative could disrupt grain exports. Additionally, macroeconomic conditions pose risks, including interest rate hikes, currency fluctuations, and the long-term impacts of climate change.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reveals a dire humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, characterized by catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity. Between November 24 and December 7, 2023, over 90% of the Gaza Strip's population, around 2.08 million people, experienced high levels of acute food insecurity categorized as IPC Phase 3 or higher (Crisis or worse). Of these, more than 40% were in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and over 15% were in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). From December 8, 2023, to February 7, 2024, the entire population (approximately 2.2 million people) is projected to be in IPC Phase 3 or higher—the highest percentage for any population in the history of the IPC initiative. About half of this population will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and over one-quarter (500,000 people) will be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), indicating severe conditions of extreme food scarcity, starvation, and depleted coping capacities.
In the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there has been a surge in trade-related policies implemented by countries. The global food crisis has been exacerbated by an increasing number of food trade restrictions imposed by countries aiming to boost domestic supply and lower prices. As of January 17, 2024, 15 countries have enforced 21 food export bans, and 11 countries have instituted 14 export-limiting measures.
